Trump’s Iran war drags the world into his tear-it-down politics

2026-03-09 - 09:44

America’s attitude toward allies leading up to the Iran war was the geopolitical equivalent of a slogan on a jacket once notoriously sported by first lady Melania Trump: “I Really Don’t Care. Do U?” The Trump administration not only spurned coalitions and failed to seek the diplomatic legitimacy that marked the 1990-91 Gulf War or even the Iraq invasion in 2003; it launched its onslaught, along with Israel, without even telling many of its friends. Take, for instance, the blindsiding during a trip to Dubai of a senior member of Italy’s government, which is closer to Trump’s ideology than most in Europe. “Think about the fundamental lack of coordination that represents: One of the US’ closest allies’ defense minister was in the theater when it kicked off, and had no idea,” said a US official. Nine days later, the war has pulled the world more deeply than ever into the disorienting vortex that has already defined American life in the whiplash era of Donald Trump’s tear-it-down politics. The US’ and Israel’s opening strikes — which killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — sent off a regional pandemonium. European and Middle Eastern governments were confronted with a sudden war that wasn’t theirs and that most didn’t want. Officials scrambled to rescue citizens trapped in a widening combat zone. Soaring energy prices battered fragile economies and uproar rocked domestic politics. In the Gulf, US allies faced a drone and missile barrage that shattered the opulent calm of gleaming glass cities springing from the desert and shut down a global aviation crossroads. Demonstrators hold images of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after he was killed in US-Israeli strikes in Tehran. Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters Now, some allies are growing frustrated amid rising economic costs, fears of a migrant crisis if Iran implodes, and their citizens’ vulnerability. And they worry about what might come next. But despite the administration’s triumphalism and the determination of his critics to compare America’s newest war to the Iraq quagmire, it’s too early to fairly judge how the war might end. Relentless US and Israeli air attacks — in a military playbook that feels far more planned out than the political one — stand a strong chance of neutering Tehran’s power to threaten its neighbors. This would benefit the wider Middle East, bill Trump as a regional strongman, deliver Israel from an existential threat, and improve US national security after a near 50-year feud with the Islamic Republic. But without full regime change, Iranians might still pay a heavy price if crackdowns rather than counter-revolution follow. And if Trump’s war shatters the Iranian state and sparks civil war, a refugee crisis or grave economic consequence could destabilize the world. President Donald Trump during a roundtable in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on March 6. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images ‘Keep calm and (don’t) humiliate them’ The war has coined new geopolitical truths for Western and Middle East nations that can’t live with Trump but can’t live without him. It’s hard to understand why European and Gulf allies didn’t see this coming. This war is the muscular epitome of a new America First doctrine of unleashing US might to enforce a novel view of US interests. Like the US toppling of Venezuelan leader Nicholás Maduro, it reflects Trump lieutenant Stephen Miller’s statement on CNN last year that the “iron laws of the world” mean strong nations can rule by force. It’s the personification of Trump’s volcanic temperament, embrace of huge risks, allergy to strategy and zeal for unchecked power. The most unpredictable president of the modern age has now made the world’s top superpower its most unsettling influence. One European diplomat told CNN the main impulse for contributing militarily to the conflict is to “protect national interests.” Others argued that managing Trump is also a key national interest. “For now, we are trying to keep calm and not humiliate them,” said a European diplomat, explaining that hostility could backfire. Julien Barnes-Dacey, program director for the Middle East at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Europeans “have been caught cold.” “They are, globally now, responding to the daily whims of a US president who is causing immense disruption,” Barnes-Dacey said. He added, “They are caught between a rock and a hard place. ... On the one hand, they want to cling on to some sense of international law, or the rules-based order, and then on the other hand, they are desperately trying to keep themselves in Trump’s good books.” Mourners carry the bodies of Hezbollah fighters who were killed by Israeli air strikes during their funeral procession in eastern Lebanon on March 8. Bilal Hussein/AP Shocked as Europeans are by Trump’s contempt for international institutions, their own military fragility means they must tread carefully with a president who is critical for their defense. “It’s too simplistic to say that the Europeans are unequivocal champions of international law. Where most of the Europeans are coming out is, ‘We’ll condemn your methods but condone your motives,’” said Nicholas Dungan, CEO of CogitoPraxis, a strategic consultancy based in The Hague. “So as Israel and the United States pursue the war they started, the Europeans try to engage without engaging and commit without committing,” Dungan said. But Trump, emboldened by his command of fearsome US military power, seems oblivious to European efforts to catch up. “I couldn’t care less,” he told CBS on Saturday when asked whether he wanted more help. “They can do whatever they want.” The Iran war shock waves pummeled a transatlantic alliance already reeling from Trump’s renewed demands in January that Greenland join the United States. The “special relationship” is in crisis after Trump reacted angrily to Britain’s initial refusal to let US pilots fly combat sorties from its bases. Beleaguered Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned “regime change from the skies” and spoke for a nation traumatized by the Iraq War and deeply offended by Trump’s recent slighting of Allied casualties of