Hezbollah is dragging Lebanon into the war on Iran, but the militia is a shadow of the force it once was

2026-03-03 - 13:13

Beirut — As Israel intensifies its campaign against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia, Lebanon is now teetering on the brink of being fully sucked into the escalating US and Israeli war on Iran – a fate the fragile Lebanese government has been desperate to avoid. The seizure by Israel of more territory in south Lebanon, accompanied by a surge of violence including air strikes, follows Hezbollah’s decision to avenge the killing of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the early hours of Monday, the Lebanese militia fired missiles and “a swarm of drones” towards an Israeli military base near Haifa – the first cross-border raid it has carried out since late 2024. The attack was likely meant to demonstrate how the group, a once reliable and powerful proxy of the Islamic Republic, still has the capability and the will to strike on behalf of Tehran. More drone attacks have followed “in response to the criminal Israeli aggression that targeted dozens of Lebanese cities and towns,” according to a Hezbollah statement, with the group saying it was aiming for radar sites and control rooms at an Israeli airbase in northern Israel. But Hezbollah, once bristling with weapons and seen as a potent deterrent against a direct confrontation with Iran, now appears barely a shadow of the force it once was. Battered by years of relentless Israeli assaults, it has seen its most senior leaders assassinated, its southern Lebanese strongholds overrun and its fearsome missile arsenal depleted. The group is also facing mounting political pressure inside Lebanon. Following its revenge attack over Khamenei’s death, the Lebanese government has now formally outlawed Hezbollah’s military activities in a bid to stave off further Israeli retribution – a symbolic but potentially risky move that could stoke tensions between the national Lebanese military and the militia. “We will not allow the country to be dragged into new adventures, and we will take all necessary measures to stop those responsible and protect the Lebanese people,” Nawaf Salam, Lebanon’s prime minister, said Monday in a post on X. It’s a state of instability that Israel appears intent on exploiting. In the tense Lebanese capital, Beirut, Israeli surveillance drones buzz overhead while red tracer bullets light up the night skies, fired to warn residents of possible attacks. Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes that struck a building housing Al-Manar channel studios in Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, early on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Bilal Hussein/AP This city, already exhausted by conflict, has been hit hard in recent days, with multiple Israeli airstrikes targeting the suburbs of southern Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold. Israel says one latest attack in the city struck Hezbollah command centers and weapons storage facilities. And areas of south Lebanon – Hezbollah’s home turf – have once again been pounded from across the Israeli border, leaving dozens of people killed and injured, while thousands have fled their homes to take shelter out of the line of fire. Meanwhile, Israel is calling up tens of thousands of reservists to deploy near the Lebanese border, fueling speculation of a deeper ground invasion to push back, or even end, the Iranian-backed militia once and for all. In a press briefing Tuesday morning, IDF spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani stressed that the move is not the beginning of a major ground invasion into Lebanon. “Our presence is limited to the immediate border area in a defensive posture to prevent attacks against Israeli civilians and to secure key strategic points,” Shoshani said. “This is not a maneuver or a large-scale operation – it is a tactical measure to ensure security and prevent infiltration attempts.” The apparent predicament of Hezbollah contributes to the vulnerability of its Iranian sponsor. Without its strong Lebanese proxy, one key deterrent against a direct Israeli confrontation with Iran was removed. And, like Iran, Hezbollah appears to now be in the crosshairs not because it is strong and poses an unbearable threat, but because it is in a uniquely weakened state.